England cut after Brisbane heroics

England's fabulous recovery in the opening Test ensured a draw against Australia in Brisbane and the two sides head to Adelaide this week for the second match in the five-game series. As expected, there is very little to choose between the two teams but the bookies have cut England's price for outright victory.

Bet365 immediately reacted by cutting England from 7/4 to 6/4 to win the series, while Australia have been lengthened to 11/8 and the draw has been slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.

The Australians extended their unbeaten record in Brisbane - you have to go back to 1988 for their last defeat there - but the way England fought back and exposed Australia's rather impotent bowling attack will have given them enormous belief that they can go on to win the Ashes Down Under for the first time since 1986/7.

Naturally, the correct score betting has also changed. A 2-1 win for either side is now the favourite, with both on offer at 5/1, while a 1-1 draw is now just 6/1. It's 9/1 that they each win two of the remaining four matches, while of the more outlandish bets, it's 33/1 that Australia win 4-0 and the same price that England win all four themselves. That's how close it is.

Original preview
It has been 23 years since England last won the Ashes in Australia but with just a week to go until the start of the five-match series, everything seems to be going wrong for the hosts and the tourists may never have a better chance to triumph on foreign soil.

England will be wary of any kind of over confidence - after all, they were humbled in the corresponding series four years ago - but all the evidence suggests that they have a great chance to win this time round. It's going to be tight but it will come down to who wants it most and who has the mental strength to succeed.

Bet365 originally installed Australia as 8/11 favourites, far longer than they were four years ago when Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath wreaked havoc and when Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer and Adam Gilchrist were still in the side. That, in itself, was a weak price because the Aussies had just lost 2-0 in India - albeit in two tight matches - but since then, they have been beaten at home by Sri Lanka in a one-day series and look in trouble.

It took bet365 a while but they eventually lengthened Australia and since then, they have not stopped drifting, with the latest price now odds against at 21/20, something you would never have believed possible. Some may think that becomes a good price on home soil but they really do look to be struggling and England will have plenty of backers, even though they have now been cut from 2/1 to 7/4, while the draw has also been popular and is now into 9/2 from 5/1.

Key encounters
England have rarely had as settled a side going into an Ashes Tour and if they can avoid defeat in Brisbane, where Australia have not lost since 1988, I find it hard to see them being beaten in the series overall.

The biggest problem for Australia over the past year has been their inability to take 20 wickets regularly enough to win series. They couldn't even manage it against Pakistan in England this summer and England themselves are a better, more consistent side than most so doing it this time, even with the benefit of playing at home, won't be easy.

Mitchell Johnson is too inconsistent to be a regular threat, though he will still take wickets; Shane Watson is a bit-part bowler; Doug Bollinger and Peter Siddle also fail to take enough wickets on a regular basis and Nathan Hauritz is hardly prolific. Ben Hilfenhaus is probably their best, most reliable bowler, but he is not that quick so England will not fear him.

Their batting is also fragile, perhaps too reliable on Ricky Ponting, who has been showing signs of strain of late. More importantly, and some might say at last, the Aussies are showing their age with injuries beginning to creep into their side. Simon Katich is struggling with a shoulder injury and Clarke has back trouble.

By contrast, England appear to be preparing very nicely for the series. That might inspire fear in some people who think everything is going too well, but they would much rather have it that way than the other way round. In Andrew Strauss, they have a solid and reliable batsman and a decent captain; in Kevin Pietersen and Jonathan Trott they have class towards the top of the order and in Paul Collingwood, Ian Bell and Alastair Cook, they have players all capable of making centuries against Australia.

In terms of their bowlers, England surely have the edge. James Anderson and Stuart Broad make a fine new-ball partnership while Steven Finn is hugely promising and Graeme Swann has been the best bowler in the world in the past 18 months. Going in with only four bowlers presents the obvious risk of being too few if one of them gets injured during a match but they are all very fit and the mood in the camp is hughely positive.

Being perfectly prepared, being in form and being unafraid is all good and well, but actually doing it on the pitch is another thing altogether. However, it really does seem as if England have the momentum, have the experience of winning the Ashes at home last time round, and the desire to get the job done this time.

In terms of correct score, Australia are 13/2 to win the series 2-1 and the same score to win it 3-1. A 2-2 draw is next at 15/2, while it's just 9/1 that England win 2-1, 10/1 that the Aussies edge it 3-2, and 12/1 that England win it 3-1 or Australia win it 3-0.

I really think that almost everything will come down to what happens in the first Test, with Brisbane having been such a fortress for the Aussies over the past 20 years. If England can get something out of that game, the series is theirs for the taking.