Pakistan chase a third miracle

Anyone who has had the fortune to catch any of the first four matches of the one-day series between Pakistan and South Africa have been in for an absolute treat because each of them has gone to the wire and somehow, we come to the deciding match on Monday with both sides chasing the series win.

I don't think there is any question that South Africa are the better side, but Pakistan have dredged up some inspiration on two occasions, perhaps even on all four, to make a great contest out of this series.

Bet365 still make South Africa favourites, at 8/15, and they have to be correct in this case, for South Africa are far more consistent - if they play as they have been doing, it will take another miracle for Pakistan to win and surely they have used their fair share up already.

Still, it has been fantastic to watch and if Shahid Afridi's side can produce again, we could be in for a classic match. I still stand by my original series prediction of a 3-2 win for the tourists but I would not be surprised at anything I see if the first four games are any kind of form guide and there will be plenty of takers of Pakistan at 6/4.

Original series preview
Pakistan were pretty woeful in the two Twenty20 matches and while they will be hopeful of better things when their five-match one-day series with South Africa begins on Friday, they are up against it against a well-organised and efficient side.

Not only are South Africa better on paper, but Pakistan again do not have the benefit of home advantage due to the security troubles in their own country. The five-match series will be played in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and while Pakistan are well used to it they lose the edge they would have enjoyed at home.

So it's no surprise to see bet365 make South Africa big favourites at 1/4 to come out on top. Pakistan are 3/1 outsiders.

Now this series is no cakewalk for Pakistan have plenty of good players in the one-day game as we've seen over the years and they are better suited to that form of the game than Tests. Losing a couple of Twenty20 matches is no big deal in my opinion and should they somehow eke out victory in the one-dayers then it will a job well done. But it is not going to be easy.

The favourite in the correct score market is a 4-1 win, available at 19/10 while a 5-0 whitewash is just 7/2 and a 3-2 win is the outsider at 9/4. If you think Pakistan can win then you'll get pretty good odds. Bet365 make them 15/4 to edge it 3-2, 16/1 to win it 4-1 and a whopping 100/1 to win all five matches.

On the evidence of the Twenty20 matches, that's not going to happen and on the history between the two sides, they will struggle too. South Africa have won about two thirds of the matches between the two since they were readmitted to international cricket in 1992 and at neutral venues, Pakistan have won just three of the 16 matches. On the other hand, they have won more than they have lost in Abu Dhabi, so perhaps all is not lost.

South Africa have won 12 of their 16 matches over the past 12 months and they have lost just three times away or at a neutral venue over the past two years.

Now the South Africans are not the side they were in the late 1990s when their all-round play was second only to the all-conquering Australians but they still have a good balance in their side and they know how to get the job done, in a consistent fashion.

In fact, consistency is probably what separates these two sides more than anything. Pakistan are hugely talented and you can bet that on at least one occasion they will put things together enough to win a match. It's just a question of how many times they can do it.

The return of Younis Khan will do wonders for their batting, in the long run - once he's found his form again - and in Shahid Afridi, Umar Gul and others like Wahab Riaz, they have bundles of talent. It's just how well they apply themselves to their task.

I can see then winning at least one match and maybe two, so at the odds, a 3-2 win for South Africa looks the most solid bet, at 9/4.