Rain the only thing to stop England

The dismissal of Michael Clarke from the last ball of the day by Kevin Pietersen has given England a greater stranglehold on the second Test in Adelaide and with one day to go it seems that rain is the only thing that can save Australia from defeat.

The locals have been talking up the chances of rain on the final day and a couple of interruptions do look possible but the fact is that England are 137 runs ahead and Australia have just three recognised batsmen left before their very long tail is exposed.

Marcus North will come to the crease in the morning to join Michael Hussey and the first session will be crucial. If England can pick up one or two wickets with the second new ball, then Australia will be on the rack and Graeme Swann will fancy his chances of finishing things off.

Bet365 are still being cautious, though, for they make England even money to go on to win it, with the draw the narrow favourite at 4/5 and Australia 200/1 to produce what would be the most incredible and unlikely turnaround of all time.

Hussey, unbeaten on 44, is 5/6 to go on to 85 or more and North is the same price to get to 32 or better. It's a tough task for the Aussies and though they have been fighting hard, England have to be the favourites.

Original match preview
England will have taken the most out of the draw in the opening Test of the Ashes but the bookies think that the two sides are so closely matched that the second Test, beginning in Adelaide on Friday, could produce another draw.

The elation Engand will have felt after their stunning second-innings effort should put them in good heart for Adelaide, but they will do well not to get carried away. Yes, getting something in Brisbane, where Australia are so strong, sets them up nicely for the series but they will not forget that they struggled with the ball in Australia's first innings.

In the build-up to the first Test, I talked a lot about how I could not see how, if England bat well, Australia would actually be able to take 20 wickets in a match and Brisbane was a perfect example. However, England struggled too and their elation should be tempered by a dose of reality.

Nevertheless, they will head into day one in Adelaide in good heart and confident that they will be tough to beat again. The pitch in Adelaide is traditionally a belter to bat on - at least in the first couple of days - and bet365 make the draw the favourite, now at even money. Australia are now 5/2 and England remain 11/4.

Many of England's team will remember what happened in Adelaide four years ago, when they began day five 97 ahead and lost as Shane Warne ripped through them. The pitch is likely to take spin later in the game but there is no Warne any more and England should be better aware of what can happen.

Australia have won half of the 68 Tests to be played at the Adelaide Oval, drawing 18 and losing just 16 so it's been a pretty good stamping ground for them over the years. However, in recent times, they drew with West Indies and other teams, like India in 2003, also enjoyed success on it.

Time for change?
The big question going into the second Test concerns the make-up of the Australia team. While England will almost certainly go into the match with the same XI that battled so well in Brisbane, Australia are considering dropping Mitchell Johnson, who looked woefully out of form and short of confidence in the opener.

Doug Bollinger and Ryan Harris are standing by to come into the side and it will be fascinating to see what the Australia selectors do. They are famous for being patient with their top players but they are also ruthless and once you're out, it's tough to get back in.

The fact is, though, that they look a bowling attack short on ideas and short on inspiration. In the absence of an on-song Johnson, no one really offers anything different and that means there will be a lot of pressure on their batsmen to perform.

The toss could be crucial in Adelaide too. When you think that the players have only had a few days between the end of events in Brisbane and the start of play in Adelaide, if England win the toss and bat first - which they would be advised to do - then Australia's bowlers will surely be struggling for freshness, to say the least.

Batting bullies
After Alastair Cook's heroics in Brisbane, he has been promoted to joint favourite in the betting to be England's top runscorer in the first innings, together with captain Andrew Strauss at 10/3. Jonathan Trott, fresh from his hundred in the second innings is Brisbane, and Kevin Pietersen are both 4/1, while Ian Bell is 13/2 and Paul Collingwood 7/1.

Collingwood will have good memories of his own efforts in 2006 when he made a brilliant double-century, but the question is whether the top four in the batting order will struggle enough for him to have a good enough chance to top-score. The same goes for Bell, who looked in great touch in Brisbane, but who at No 6, has less time than others.

Though Michael Hussey made a fine century in Brisbane, England will still be most worried about Ricky Ponting and the Australia captain is favourite with bet365 to top-score for his side, at 3/1.

Openers Simon Katich and Shane Watson are each 7/2, while Hussey and Michael Clarke, who should be fitter than he was in the opener after his back trouble, are both 11/2. Marcus North is 10/1 and the excellent Brad Haddin far from out of it at 12/1.

I am tempted to say that England should carry their momentum into Adelaide and win the match but the pitch and some inclement weather in the build-up makes me think that a result might be difficult. We won't know for sure until we see the action on day one but I think the draw is most likely at this stage.